NAIROBI (CoinChapter.com)– Polymarket, a leading prediction market platform, shows that 45% of traders expect Bitcoin to fall below $45,000 in the coming weeks. This percentage surged to 65% during early European trading hours amid a steep market downturn. Current data indicates that less than $300,000 has been wagered in this pool, reflecting cautious but growing sentiment.
Bitcoin’s Bearish Outlook: Will It Hit $45,000?
Bitcoin’s price slipped below $55,000 overnight, fueled by macroeconomic uncertainties and escalating geopolitical tensions. The sell-off continued, driving the price to $50,000 and resulting in over $1 billion in liquidations within 24 hours.
A few days prior, Polymarket bettors assigned only a 5% chance to Bitcoin dropping below $45,000 by Sept. This probability increased amid the ongoing turmoil, rising to 15% even as markets started showing signs of distress.
Bitcoin Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) on Binance shows a decline of 95,120 BTC, reflecting bearish market sentiment. This metric highlights the selling pressure that has contributed to the recent drop in BTC prices.
Additionally, the Aggregated Spot CVD shows a decrease of around 33,530 BTC, further underscoring the bearish sentiment in the spot market.
According to Coinglass, negative funding rates provide another bearish signal. The Open Interest Weighted Funding Rate is at -0.0028. This rate indicates that traders favor short positions, suggesting pessimism about Bitcoin’s near-term price movements.
Open interest remains steady at about 74,200 contracts, but the overall cautious participation highlights a lack of bullish conviction.
Ethereum’s Plunge: What It Means for Investors
Ethereum is experiencing a similar downturn, with Polymarket traders betting against it as well. According to a recent pool, Ethereum has only a 3% chance of being above $3,000 on Aug 9. This sentiment has shifted dramatically from when the pool was created on Aug 2, with bettors then giving Ethereum a 75% chance of staying above $3,000.
Currently, Ethereum’s price has settled at $2,394 after falling 12% in a day and 33% over the week. CoinGlass data shows that Ethereum accounted for over $320 million in liquidations, with the majority being long positions.
The Fed’s Next Move: Market Bets on Rate Cuts
In response to the market turmoil, Polymarket introduced a Market Crash tab. The probability of the Federal Reserve announcing an emergency interest rate cut has increased to 50%, up from 23% the previous day.
Traders are also betting on the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) announcing a rate cut of over 50 basis points in its Sept. meeting, with the probability jumping to 59% from 9% at the beginning of the month.
Bitcoin dominance has surged to a three-year high, reaching 55.6989%. This reflects the shift in market sentiment and the broader impact of the recent market crash on cryptocurrencies. The total market cap of all cryptocurrencies stands at $1.2 trillion, compared to $1.09 trillion in April 2021.
Analysts Predict Further Decline: Bitcoin Heading for $45,000?
Despite the bearish outlook from Polymarket traders, Tuur Demeester, a long-time Bitcoin advisor, suggests caution. He notes that Bitcoin’s prices can rapidly reverse in a bull market, making bearish bets risky.
Independent crypto analyst “the Moon” believes Bitcoin needs to reclaim the $51,000 mark to avoid further downside, with $45,000 being a potential target if support levels fail to hold.
The current downturn aligns with previous bull cycle retracements, suggesting a potential bottom around $45,000. Coinglass data indicates that over $400 million in leveraged short positions could face liquidation if Bitcoin falls below the $50,000 threshold.
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