NAIROBI (CoinChapter.com)— Ethereum (ETH) has drawn sharp criticism from skeptics, questioning its potential to regain dominance over Bitcoin. While Ethereum remains the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, its performance this cycle has been underwhelming, amplifying doubts about its long-term strength.
Ethereum (ETH) Oversold Amid Bullish Divergence
Ethereum’s struggles against Bitcoin are evident in the ETH/BTC ratio. Currently sitting at 0.68 times its June 2022 value, the ratio reflects Ethereum’s sustained underperformance in this cycle. This is a deviation from past market patterns, where Ethereum often outpaced Bitcoin shortly after cycle lows.
Scott Melker, a technical trader, highlighted Ethereum’s oversold conditions on the weekly chart. He pointed to a rare bullish divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI). While Melker suggested this could trigger a short-term rally, the ETH/BTC pair’s decline underscores the skepticism around Ethereum’s ability to sustain any meaningful recovery.
Ethereum trades 70% below its all-time high, while Bitcoin recently hit $80,000. Critics say this highlights deeper issues, unlike Solana’s strong recovery after steep losses.
According to Santiment, large stakeholders have significantly increased their activity, pushing Ethereum’s transaction volume to $10.4 billion.
Uncertainty Looms Over Ethereum’s Path
On-chain data reveals some similarities between Ethereum’s current cycle and previous ones, but its performance continues to lag. The ETH/BTC ratio has dropped 60% since January 2022, a smaller decline than the 86% seen at the same stage in the last cycle. However, the absence of a solid recovery has left many investors doubtful about Ethereum’s ability to regain momentum.
Cameron Winklevoss pointed to growing institutional interest in this bull run, which could play a role in Ethereum’s future. On the other hand, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju warned that the futures market appears overheated, which may cause problems heading into 2025.
The ETH/BTC ratio typically falls for three to six months after Bitcoin halvings before bouncing back sharply. Analyst Charting Guy highlighted a fractal suggesting this pattern could repeat, signaling a potential rebound for Ethereum.
On-chain analyst JR backs this perspective, citing the Actual-Value-to-Investor-Value (AVIV) indicator as a sign of a potential reversal.
Ethereum’s struggles against Bitcoin have drawn criticism, but historical data and technical signals hint at a possible recovery. Whether its bear market resilience will lead to a lasting comeback, however, remains uncertain.
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