NOIDA (CoinChapter.com) — Bitcoin’s price has retreated from its all-time high of $99,800, which it reached last week, falling to a daily low near $90,000 on Nov. 26. Moreover, key metrics, including sustained miner selling, an elevated MVRV Z-Score, and high levels of Bitcoin held in profit, suggest the market is entering a period of potential consolidation or further correction.
These metrics highlight the increasing likelihood of sell pressure weighing on Bitcoin’s price action as the year-end approaches.
Bearish On-Chain Indicators Show Warning Signs
The Miner Net Position Change metric reveals that long-term holders, who have held Bitcoin for over 155 days, have sold down their positions by over 366,000 coins monthly, marking the highest selling pressure since April.
This behavior reflects profit-taking by miners, a common occurrence during significant price rallies. Historically, such sustained sell-offs have correlated with local price tops as the market absorbs large inflows of Bitcoin into circulation.
Additionally, the Total Supply in Profit metric indicates that a significant portion of Bitcoin supply is currently in profit.
This widespread profitability typically leads to increased selling, as holders lock in gains. In previous cycles, such high profitability levels have been followed by corrections, as profit-taking creates resistance against further upward momentum.
The MVRV Z-Score, which measures Bitcoin’s valuation relative to its realized value, is currently at elevated levels, indicating that Bitcoin is nearing overvaluation territory.
While not yet at extreme levels, the Z-Score’s rise suggests the market is entering a phase of heightened risk. Previous instances of similar Z-Score levels have coincided with corrections or periods of consolidation as market participants reassess Bitcoin’s short-term potential.
However, not all the on-chain metrics support a bearish outlook. The Net Transfer Volume to/from Exchanges metric reveals a dominance of outflows, with over 13,300 BTC exiting exchanges on Nov. 26 alone.
Such outflows suggest investors are moving assets to cold wallets, signaling long-term holding intentions and a continued belief in a bullish BTC price future. However, any reversal to inflows could indicate rising sell pressure and exacerbate BTC price correction.
Bitcoin Bulls Hold Above EMA Support
Meanwhile, The minuscule daily candle that the BTC USD pair has formed on Nov. 27 shows the declining excitement of market participants. The bullish cues driving Bitcoin prices, including the Trump election win and Gensler exit, seem to have been factored in by the market.
Now, traders are waiting on a decisive restart of the uptrend before entering the market. Bulls seem to be defending the 20-day EMA (red) support level near $89,000.
However, breaching the immediate support might force BTC’s price to test support near $75,600 before recovering.
On the other hand, a break above $100,000 could provide Bitcoin’s price the impetus to rally to the resistance near $110,500. Breaking and consolidating above the immediate resistance might help the token rally to the resistance near $126,000 before retreating.
However, the consolidation phase could last until 2025 unless BTC finds some new cues to fuel its bull run.
The relative strength index for Bitcoin continued to be overbought, with a score of 78.19 on the daily charts. The overbought RSI levels add to the bearish cues against Bitcoin, strengthening the correction narrative
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