NAIROBI (CoinChapter.com)— On July 5, Bitcoin trades at $56,485, recovering from a low of $53,831 earlier this morning. Despite the uptick, BTC/USD has experienced a significant drop from $62,829 over the past four days, marking an 11.5% decline for the week.
On June 29, Bitcoin hovered near $60,920, reflecting a more stable market period before the recent turbulence.
Analysts at Skew highlight Bitcoin’s recent movements around the 200 DMA as a post-halving market adjustment indicator. The halving event, which reduces the rate of new Bitcoin creation, typically injects significant bullish sentiment.
Historical data from 2014 to 2024 shows that when Bitcoin’s price fell below the 200 DMA, it often presented major buying opportunities for investors.
Bitcoin’s Plunge to $53K: Are We Heading for a Major Reversal?
Bitcoin’s daily chart indicates a persistent downtrend from $72,949, with an accelerated decline from the $60,000 zone to the $53,550 range. Significant volume spikes during price drops suggest phases of capitulation and accumulation.
The primary support is established at $53,550, with resistance around $58,000.
The relative strength index (RSI) at 26 and Stochastic at 13 signal oversold conditions. The commodity channel index (CCI) at -217 reflects strong bearish momentum. Moreover, the average directional index (ADI) reads 36, indicating a moderate trend strength.
Momentum indicators, including the momentum at -6792 and MACD level at -2210, further highlight the prevailing bearish outlook.
Moving averages across all significant periods reinforce the sell signal. The 10-period exponential moving average (EMA) at $59,931 and simple moving average (SMA) at $60,332 indicate a downturn.
According to Glassnode’s latest report, the MVRV Ratio shows aggregate investor profitability remains robust, with the average coin still holding a 2x profit multiple. The level often delineates the ‘Enthusiastic’ and the ‘Euphoric’ bull market phases, suggesting that the market may be primed for a bullish reversal.
Market Analysts Weigh In
Market analysts, including Moustache, highlight the importance of the MZ BTC bottom-indicator, a tool used to identify market bottoms. According to the analyst, maintaining the blue line in this indicator is crucial to follow the bullish cycle of 2017.
He argues that the market appears “overripe for a turnaround,” suggesting that the current correction phase may soon give way to upward momentum.
Blockstream Co-Founder Adam Back, reminds investors to remain calm, pointing out that previous bull runs have experienced several -30% drawdowns. He advises buying the dip, reinforcing the sentiment that the current market correction is a normal part of Bitcoin’s long-term growth pattern.
Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, notes that tracking Bitcoin whales in futures markets can still yield significant returns. Ju pointed out that relatively small whales are currently opening long positions, indicating potential alpha until the market becomes spot-driven.
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