NOIDA (CoinChapter.com)—Bitcoin’s recent price action has sparked optimism among traders, as a key fractal pattern hints at a potential bullish breakout. The current setup resembles the post-halving cycle in 2020 when Bitcoin entered a reaccumulation phase before experiencing a massive rally.
Now, as the market approaches a crucial moment in 2024, traders are closely watching for another significant price surge that could raise BTC prices significantly.
2024 Halving Fractal Hints at 2025 Bitcoin Rally
The 2024 Bitcoin halving has renewed focus on the cryptocurrency’s potential for significant price growth. Crypto analyst Rekt Capital recently highlighted a fractal pattern that points to similarities with the post-halving cycle of 2020.
Following the May 2020 halving, Bitcoin consolidated in a reaccumulation phase for 161 days before experiencing a parabolic rally, culminating in a 427% price surge by early 2021.
The analyst suggested that Bitcoin might enter a similar reaccumulation phase after the April 2024 halving. If history repeats, Bitcoin could see a breakout around late 2024. However, the strongest rally might not occur until early-to-mid 2025, much like how Bitcoin’s 2021 rally followed a similar period of consolidation.
In addition to the technical fractal analysis, macroeconomic factors are strengthening the bullish case for Bitcoin. On Sept. 18, 2024, the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points, lowering it to 4.75%-5%, marking the first reduction in over four years.
This rate cut signals the beginning of a new liquidity cycle, as lower interest rates generally increase money flow into risk assets like Bitcoin. Furthermore, Fed officials have hinted at more rate cuts before the year ends, potentially adding even more liquidity to the market.
As the central bank shifts its strategy from inflation control to economic growth, Bitcoin’s macroeconomic backdrop is becoming increasingly favorable. Institutional interest could rise as liquidity increases, and Bitcoin’s scarcity post-halving could drive prices even higher.
These macroeconomic factors, combined with the fractal pattern highlighted by Rekt Capital, suggest that the stage is set for a potential major Bitcoin rally in 2025. If the current reaccumulation phase plays out as anticipated, Bitcoin may surpass its previous all-time highs within the next year.
Bitcoin Price Rally Fizzling Out
Meanwhile, after a recent bull run that propelled the BTC USD pair above $63,000, Bitcoin bears seem to control the token’s price action.
Bitcoin prices briefly moved above $64,700 on Sept. 23 before paring most of its gains and dropping 3.3% to reach a daily low near $62,580. The token recovered marginally, but bulls have been unable to keep BTC price above $64,000, indicating a strong bearish presence near the price level.
For the rally to continue, BTC price would need to move above the resistance level near $66,300. Flipping the immediate resistance might help the BTC USD pair rally to the resistance near $70,800.
On the other hand, a failed rally would force BTC price to drop to the 20-day EMA (red) and 50-day EMA (purple) support confluence near $60,400. Moreover, breaching the immediate support level could force Bitcoin price to test the support level near $57,000.
With the RSI nearing 61.89 on the daily charts, BTC prices do not have much room for a bull run before the token becomes overbought.
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