Bitcoin (BTC) may soon break out, with Ryan Lee, Bitget’s chief research analyst, predicting a potential test of its all-time high at $73,737 in the coming weeks. Lee pointed to several factors driving Bitcoin’s momentum, while cautioning that market volatility could lead to sell-offs as the U.S. election draws closer.
He noted that traders are showing optimism, especially following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points—the first reduction in four years. The People’s Bank of China also made a 30 basis point cut, which boosted demand for riskier assets like Bitcoin. However, how traders react to the political landscape may determine Bitcoin’s path.
US Election Could Shape Bitcoin Sell-offs
According to Lee, the November election will play a crucial role in determining Bitcoin’s price action. The possibility of a “pro-Bitcoin” president could sway traders to hold off on selling, expecting larger gains in the future.
On Sept. 18, Nansen CEO Alex Svanevik commented that a Donald Trump victory would be bullish for U.S.-based crypto markets, while a win for Kamala Harris would be better for crypto activity outside the U.S., potentially leading firms to relocate.
Trump has consistently backed the crypto industry during his campaign. At the Economic Club of New York on Sept. 5, he reiterated his support, promising to make the U.S. a global crypto hub if elected.
Halving Cycle and Seasonality Set Stage for Breakout
Bitcoin’s historical patterns also suggest a potential breakout is near. Pseudonymous crypto trader Rekt Capital noted that Bitcoin often rallies 154 to 161 days after a halving event. The latest halving took place on April 20, reducing miner rewards to 3.125 BTC. With Sept. 23 marking the 157th day, Rekt Capital believes Bitcoin could soon enter its “parabolic upside phase.”
“History shows it’s ‘Breakout Time’ for Bitcoin,” Rekt Capital commented, noting that Bitcoin is moving from its reaccumulation phase into a potential rally.
Seasonality also favors a bullish outlook. According to data from Coinglass, Bitcoin has averaged returns of 98% during Q4 over the last 12 years. While September has traditionally been bearish for Bitcoin, this year defied expectations, with the cryptocurrency gaining 9%. This September surge outperformed its second-best showing in 2016, when Bitcoin rose by 6%.
Adding to the bullish sentiment, crypto influencer Eljaboom recently tweeted that Bitcoin’s rally could extend into the coming months. His post, which dubbed the months “Uptober,” “Moonvember,” “Pumpcember,” and “Bulluary,” reflects optimism for Bitcoin’s price surge through the end of 2024 and beyond.
As of Sept. 26, Bitcoin is priced at $64,612.88, sitting roughly 14.23% below its record high of $73,737. Traders are preparing for a potential breakout as the market reaches a critical juncture. Lee points out that the scale of any sell-off could change, depending on political factors.
Bitcoin enters a historically bullish period, with the interplay of election speculation, halving cycles, and Q4 seasonality setting the stage for potential gains.
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